2026 Midterm Predictions: Senate 52-48 GOP Hold, House 220-215 Dem Takeover - Conservative Analysis

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Good Thursday morning, Patriots, and welcome back to O'Connor's Right Stand. I'm your host, John O'Connor, software programmer by day, conservative truth seeker by night. Today, we are doing something a little different. We are going out on a limb. We are making predictions, early predictions, about the 2026 midterm elections that are still 10 months away. Now, some of you are thinking, John, it's January.

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Why are we talking about November? Here's why. Because Republicans have a terrible habit of assuming midterm elections will just take care of themselves. We assume that because Trump's doing great things, voters will automatically show up. Wrong. Midterms are about turnout. And historically, Republicans don't turn out in midterms the way we do in presidential years. So today, I'm laying out my predictions for the House and Senate.

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race by race, state by state, what I think will happen, where we are strong, where we are vulnerable, and most importantly, why these elections matter. Here's the question I want you thinking about. If we lose the House in November, what happens to Trump's agenda for the next two years? Do we let Democrats take control and spend 2027 and 2028 investigating Trump instead of passing legislation? Or...

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Do we get off our butts and vote in November? This isn't a doom and gloom episode. This isn't a we're going to lose everything episode. But it's real. It's honest. And it should be a wake up call. The right stand starts now.

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Patriots, let me start with the stakes. Because if you don't understand what's on the line, you won't understand why I'm spending 25 to 30 minutes talking about elections that are 10 months away. Right now, Republicans control the House 219 to 213. We have a six-seat majority. In the Senate, we control it 53 to 47, a six-seat majority. Those sound comfortable, right? They are not. Here's why. In the House, Democrats only need to flip

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three seats to take control. Just three. Out of 435 seats up for election, if Democrats flip three more than we flip, Nancy Pelosi's protege, Hakeem Jeffries, becomes speaker. And everything Trump wants to accomplish, dead. Think about what that means. Trump's trying to finish the wall. Democrats block it. Trump's trying to extend tax cuts. Democrats block it. Trump's trying to reform healthcare. Democrats block it.

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And instead of legislating, what do Democrats do? They investigate. They subpoena. They impeach. Again. We have seen this movie before. In 2018, Republicans lost 41 House seats. Democrats took control. And what did they do? Impeach Trump. Twice. Investigated everything. Blocked everything. Made Trump's final two years of his first term a nightmare. Do we want to repeat that?

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Because that's what's at stake. Now, the Senate is a little safer. Democrats would need to flip four seats to take control. That's harder. But it's not impossible. And if they flip the Senate, Trump can't confirm judges. He can't confirm cabinet members. His entire second term grinds to a halt. So when I tell you these elections matter, I'm not being dramatic. I'm being realistic. Control of Congress determines whether Trump can finish what he started.

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or whether Democrats obstruct him for two more years. And here's the thing that should scare you. History is not on our side. In 13 of the last 19 midterm elections, the party in power lost seats in both chambers. The president's party almost always loses the House in midterms. Why? Because the president's supporters get complacent. They think, we won in 2024, we're good, and they don't show up.

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Meanwhile, the opposition is energized, they're angry, they're motivated, and they vote. That's the midterm curse, and it's real. But here's the good news. It's not inevitable. In 2018, Trump lost 41 House seats, but he gained two Senate seats. Why? Because the Senate map favored Republicans. And in 2026, the Senate map favors us even more. So, can we hold both chambers? Yes.

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Will we hold both chambers? That depends on whether Republicans show up in November. That depends on you. All right, let's get into the predictions. Let me start with the Senate, because this is the good news. Out of 35 Senate seats up for election in 2026, 22 are held by Republicans and 13 are held by Democrats. And most of those Republican seats are in deep red states. Alabama, Arkansas,

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Idaho, Kentucky, Montana, South Dakota, Tennessee, Wyoming. These seats are safe. The vulnerable Republican seats, there are really only three. Maine, North Carolina, and Ohio. That's it. The rest are solid. Meanwhile, Democrats have to defend seats in Georgia, Michigan, and New Hampshire. And two of those, Michigan and New Hampshire, are open seats because the Democrats are retiring.

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So the map heavily favors Republicans. Democrats would need to flip four seats to take control. That means they'd have to win all of their competitive races and flip at least one Republican seat. That's a tall order. Here's my prediction. Republicans hold the Senate 52 to 48. We lose one seat, but we keep control. Let me break down the key races. Georgia. This is the Democrats' most vulnerable seat. Senator John Ossoff.

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won in 2021 by about 1 % in a runoff. Trump just carried Georgia by two points in 2024. And Ossoff has been a reliable rubber stamper for every Biden and Harris policy. The Republican primary is messy right now. Congressman Mike Collins is the front runner. Congressman Buddy Carter is close behind. Former Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley is also running but trailing.

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Once Republicans consolidate around one candidate, and they will, Ossoff is done. Georgia is trending red. Republicans just flipped the voter registration advantage for the first time in history. Ossoff's pretty much toast. Prediction, Republicans flipped Georgia. Michigan. Senator Gary Peters is retiring after two terms. That makes this an open seat.

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and open seats are always more competitive than races with incumbents. The Republican candidate is Mike Rogers. He's a former congressman who ran for Senate in 2024 and lost by only 20,000 votes. He has Trump's endorsement, he has establishment support, and he has name recognition. On the Democrat side, you've got a crowded primary with several House members fighting it out. No clear frontrunner.

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No candidate with statewide name recognition. Plus, Trump flipped Michigan in 2024. The momentum is with Republicans. Rogers has a real shot. Prediction? Republicans flipped Michigan.

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Alright, here's the bad news. Democrats are going to flip some seats. Let's be honest about where we are vulnerable. Maine. I hate to say it, but I think Senator Susan Collins loses. She's 73 years old, she's seeking a sixth term, and she's the only Republican senator representing a state that Kamala Harris won in 2024. Collins has won tough races before. She always polls behind and then polls it out somehow.

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But this time, I don't know, feels different. Governor Janet Mills is likely running against her. Mills is popular, she's a Democrat, and Maine leans blue in midterms. Collins is a fighter, but I think this is the year she finally loses. Prediction? Democrats flip Maine. North Carolina. This one's tricky. Senator Tom Tillis announced in June that he's not running for re-election.

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He voted against Trump's big, beautiful bill over Medicaid cuts, and Trump basically told him, don't let the door hit you on the way out. So now it's an open seat, and open seats are always more competitive. The Republican is Michael Wadley. He's the former RNC chair. He ran North Carolina's GOP when they had a red wave in 2022. He's got Trump's backing. He's got donor connections. He's a strong candidate. The Democrat is Roy Cooper.

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former governor. He just left office in January after two terms. He's popular. He's a moderate. And Democrats are thrilled he's running. Here's the thing. North Carolina is purple. Trump won it by three points in 2024, but Democrats won the governor, attorney general, and secretary of state races. So it swings both ways. This race is going to be expensive. It'll probably break records.

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Both parties are pouring everything into it. My gut says Cooper has a slight edge because he's more well known statewide. Watley is a great political operative, but he's not a household name yet, and open seats tend to favor the party that's more energized in midterms, which right now is unfortunately the Democrats. But this could go either way. If Trump's approval climbs and Republicans turn out, Watley wins.

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If Trump stays underwater and Democrats are energized, Cooper wins. Prediction, Democrats win North Carolina. But I'm going to be eagle-eyed focused on this one. New Hampshire. Senator Gene Shaheen is retiring after three years. So that makes this an open seat. The Democrat candidate is Congressman Chris Papas. He represents half the state in the House. He has name recognition. He's a moderate.

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The Republican side is a fight between former Senator John Sununu and former Senator Scott Brown. Sununu is the establishment favorite. He's the son and brother of popular New Hampshire governors. But he's also trying to be the first senator to win back a Senate seat since Slade Gorton of Washington. That's hard. New Hampshire leans blue in midterms. Democrat turnout is higher. And Poppa says a polling lead over Sununu by four points.

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I think Democrats hold the seat. Barely. But they hold it. Prediction? Democrats hold New Hampshire. Ohio. This race could go either way. Senator John Husted was appointed by Governor Mike DeWine after J.D. Vance became vice president. Husted is well known in Ohio. He's a solid Republican. He has DeWine's backing. But the Democrat is Sherrod Brown. Yes, that Sherrod Brown.

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the former Senator who lost in 2024 and is attempting a comeback. Here's the problem for Brown. Ohio is now a solidly red state. Trump carried it twice. Republicans dominate statewide elections. And Brown already lost in 2024. Can a Democrat win back a Senate seat they just lost? History says no. As mentioned earlier, Slade Gordon tried it in Washington and failed. Brown is older. Ohio is redder.

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and Husted is a stronger candidate. I think Husted holds the seat, but it'll be close. Prediction, Republicans hold Ohio. So overall, the Republicans flip Georgia and Michigan. Democrats flip Maine and North Carolina. Democrats hold New Hampshire. Republicans hold Ohio. Net result, Republicans lose one seat, but we still control the Senate 52 to 48. That's a win. Not a great win, but a win.

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We keep the Senate. Trump can still confirm judges. Trump can still pass legislation if we hold the House. Which brings us to the House. Okay, patriots, here's where it gets tougher. The House is in a knife fight. And I'm going to be honest with you, I think we lose the House, narrowly, but we lose it. Here's why. Right now, Republicans hold 219 seats. Democrats hold 213.

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There are three vacancies that will be filled through special elections. We need 218 to maintain a majority. That means Democrats need to flip a net of just four seats to take control. Just four. And history says we're in trouble. In 2018, Trump's first midterm, Republicans lost 41 House seats. Trump's approval rating in 2018 was around 40%. His approval rating right now is around 40 to 42%.

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The generic ballot, which asks voters, would you vote for a Republican or a Democrat for Congress, currently shows Democrats leading by 14 points. That's catastrophic. In 2018, Democrats led the generic ballot by 8.6 % and they picked up 41 seats. If the election were held today, honestly, we'd be looking at a bloodbath. Now there is some good news redistricting.

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Texas re-drew its congressional map and the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 in December to allow it. That could give Republicans up to five new seats. North Carolina is re-drawing maps targeting the first district to make it more Republican. That's potentially one or two more GOP seats. Missouri passed redistricting in a special session and turned Kansas City's fifth district from solid Democrat to solid Republican. That's one GOP seat.

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Ohio got new court mandated maps that lean slightly more Republican in a couple districts. But here's the problem. California also redistricted, and California's new maps, approved by voters in Proposition 50 on November 5th, could give Democrats five seats by eliminating Republican districts. Utah got a court ordered map that creates a safe Democratic district in Salt Lake County.

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That's one Democratic pickup from redistricting alone. The net effect? Republicans gain maybe two to four seats nationwide from redistricting. That helps, but it's not nearly enough to overcome the midterm curse when Trump's approval is underwater by 12 to 14 points. Now, here is the battleground. So these are the eight Republican-held vulnerable seats that I believe are in play. Arizona won. Arizona six. Colorado eight.

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Iowa 1, Michigan 7, Nebraska 2, Pennsylvania 7, and Pennsylvania 10. Now, these are the six Democratic-held vulnerable seats that I believe are in play. California 13, New Mexico 2, North Carolina 1, Ohio 9, Ohio 13, and finally Texas 28. Now, there's also Maine's second district.

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Originally rated a toss up, but Democrat Jared Golden decided to retire in November 2025. Former Republican governor, Paula Page is now running and is heavily favored. Also, Trump carried this district by 10 points. So all in all my predictions, Republican pickups, seven seats, Maine two, Ohio nine, Ohio 13, North Carolina one, New Mexico two, California 13 and Texas 28.

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But, Democrat pickups of 11 seats. Arizona won, Arizona 6, Colorado 8, Iowa 1, Nebraska 2, Pennsylvania 7, Pennsylvania 10, Michigan 7. And 9, 10, and 11, these are the three California seats eliminated through redistricting, so Republicans lose these seats outright when the districts are merged. Final prediction, Democrats 220, Republicans 215.

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Hakeem Jeffries becomes Speaker of the House. Three factors that I believe drive this outcome. One, Trump's approval is catastrophically underwater. At 40 to 42 % approval with 54 to 56 % disapproval, Trump is historically unpopular for a first year president. The generic ballot showing Democrats plus 14 is devastating. In 2018, Democrats led by 8.6 points and picked up 41 seats.

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A 14 point lead could mean an even bigger wave. Number two, the midterm turnout problem. Republicans struggle in midterms when Trump isn't on the ballot. Our voters, especially the new Trump voters from 2024, don't show up for House races. Meanwhile, Democrat voters are angry and motivated. Point three, redistricting helps but isn't enough.

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Even with Texas, North Carolina, Missouri helping us through to redistricting, California's counter move cancels most of it out. We net maybe two to four seats from maps nationwide. That's not nearly enough to overcome a 14 point generic ballot deficit. Can we change this? Yes, but only if we turn out. If Trump's approval improves to say 48 to 50 % by October,

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If the economy is strong, if inflation is crushed, and if we get our voters to the polls in an off-year election, we can hold the House. But right now, 10 months out, with Trump at 40 % approval and a generic ballot showing Democrats plus 14, honestly, I think we lose the House 220 to 215. That's my honest prediction. But here's the thing, Patriots. Predictions are not destiny. This is a wake-up call.

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We have 10 months to prove me wrong. 10 months to turn out voters. 10 months to improve Trump's approval. 10 months to fight for every single seat. Don't let my prediction discourage you. Let it motivate you. Because if we sit home in November, we will lose the House. But if we fight, we can hold it. The choice is ours. Patriots, let me bring this home. I'm predicting Republicans hold the Senate 52 to 48.

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We lose one seat, but we keep control. That's good news. Trump can still confirm judges. He can still pass legislation if the House cooperates. But I am predicting we lose the House 220 to 215. Democrats take control by four seats. Hakeem Jeffries becomes Speaker, and Trump's agenda gets blocked. Is this set in stone? No, not for a second. Can we change it? Absolutely, yes we can. But...

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only if Republicans turn out. Here's what I need you to understand. Midterm elections are about turnout. The party that shows up wins. The party that stays home loses. It is that simple. In 2024, Trump got 77 million votes. We need those same 77 million voters to show up in November 2026. If they do, we hold the House and Senate. If they don't, we lose.

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So what can you and I do? First, vote. Don't assume your vote doesn't matter. Every single vote counts, especially in close races. Second, bring someone with you. Bring your spouse, bring your friend, bring your neighbor. Get them to the polls. Third, volunteer. Knock on doors, make phone calls, donate to campaigns. Do something. Don't sit on the sidelines and complain later. Fourth,

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Hold Republicans accountable. If your Congressman isn't fighting for Trump's agenda, primary them. If your Senator is caving to Democrats, call them out. We need fighters, not cowards. And fifth, don't get complacent. Just because Trump won in 2024 doesn't mean we are safe in 2026. History is against us. The midterm curse is real. We have to fight like we are losing. Here's my final question for you.

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Do you want Trump's agenda to succeed? Do you want the wall finished? Do you want tax cuts extended? Do you want healthcare reformed? If the answer is yes, then you have to vote in November. You have to turn out. You have to bring others with you. Because if we lose the House, Democrats spend the next two years investigating Trump instead of legislating. They subpoena everyone. They impeach him again. They obstruct everything.

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We've seen this movie, we don't need to watch it again. So here's my challenge, prove me wrong. Prove that Republicans can turn out in midterms. Prove that we can hold both chambers. Show me that Trump's 77 million voters are just as motivated in 2026 as they were in 2024. Can we do it? Yes. Will we do it? That depends on you and I. I'm predicting we lose the House, but hold the Senate. But I want...

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to be wrong. I want to come back in November and say, I was too pessimistic. Republicans turned out. We held everything. Make me eat my words, Patriots. Prove me wrong. Vote in November. Well, Patriots, that's our show for today. My predictions are in Senate, Republicans 52, Democrats 48. House, Democrats 220, Republicans 215. We hold the Senate. We lose the House. But remember,

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These are predictions, not destiny. We have 10 months to change the outcome. 10 months to turn out voters. 10 months to hold the line. I'm shamelessly going to ask you to hit that subscribe, follow, and or like button. And thank you in advance. If you have a moment, go check out O'Connor's Quick Strike podcast, Monday, Wednesdays, and Friday. This podcast is Tuesdays and Thursdays. Find me on X at O'Connor Podcasts. Share this episode. If you agree with my predictions, share it.

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If you disagree, share it and tell people why I'm wrong. Let's get the conversation going. Have a great rest of your day, Patriots. Until next Tuesday, hold the line unapologetically. This is John O'Connor, signing off.